NFL Betting: Keeping it Simple is Sometimes the Best Approach
on Jan.13, 2012, under NFL News
Anyone that gets involved with the sports betting sites understands that sometimes the simplest approach is the best approach. When it comes to NFL betting, there are two ways in which you can win by using the simplest of methods. Remember that there is no betting method that is perfect and can guarantee results. But methods that will get you better than 50 percent in the win column is at least worth investigating.
The bookie software sets the lines based on several conditions. But when a high-scoring team plays a low-scoring team, the line will almost always skew towards the high-scoring team. As a matter of fact, the five highest scoring teams in the league in any given season usually win at least 60 percent of their games against the spread. All you have to do is determine if a team is a top-five scoring team and then place your bet. It is that simple.
Another easy indicator of how a team will play is its home and away record. If you write or follow any other sports website such as a hockey blog, then you know that teams tend to establish patterns of winning and losing on the road. After the midway point of the season, you can use these tendencies to make some money. If a team has a winning record at home, then you can take the bet that it will win its next home game. More often than not, you will be right.
NFL Proposition Betting
on Jan.02, 2012, under NFL News
A fun little sideline to NFL betting and online wagering in bigger games is something called proposition betting. These are bets that the price per head service creates on its own to try and generate a little extra betting action for itself and its customers.
A proposition bet is not a typical bet to determine which team will win or which team will lose. It is a side bet that gives lines on things like who will win the coin toss, the over-under on how many yards a quarterback will throw for, who will be leading at halftime and who will score the winning touchdown. NFL fans like these proposition bets because they can be a great way to pad the winnings for a night. But proposition bets also have a challenging side that every bettor needs to be aware of.
There are no standard lines for proposition bets. That means that the line for who will win the coin toss on site A is different than the line on site B. That means that bettors may want to do a little looking to find the best lines on proposition bets to make sure they are getting the best possible odds. The danger in this for the betting websites is that the sites with the best odds will get all of the action and the sites with the lower lines will not see any additional revenue.
Many of the proposition lines are based on historical information. But, in many cases, it can just be a gut feeling that tells you which bet to take and how much you should put down.
NFL Week 16 Previews: Some Teams Finish Strong
on Dec.16, 2011, under Super Bowl 101
The online betting sites are getting geared up for the NFL playoffs, but there are still two weeks of the regular season to get through first. Some teams are battling for playoff spots while other teams are trying to build on something positive for next season. The bookie software has all of these teams eliminated from playoff contention, but that does not mean that they cannot finish the season strong.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
This is exactly the kind of game that the Carolina Panthers need to help build on next season. The inexplicable collapse of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play into the hands of the constantly improving Panthers. With a couple of off-season changes, this Carolina team could be a playoff contender next year. This game will help kick-start that momentum.
Pick: Carolina Panthers
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins
The NFL fans in Washington have endured one of the most violent roller coaster rides in NFL history these last couple of years. But it may be time for the Washington train to get on track. Christian Ponder is not holding up to the pressure of being an NFL starting quarterback, which means that Joe Webb may start this game. Either way, this win will give the Redskins something to build on for next season.
Pick: Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals
In all reality, both of these teams are showing significant progress in the second half of the 2011 season. But the Bengals are much better than it was supposed to be as Cincinnati fights for a playoff spot. This game will be a stepping stone to being a playoff contender next season for the Bengals.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
NFL Week 14 Picks for NFC Playoff Teams
on Dec.02, 2011, under NFL News
As college football betting starts to focus on bowl games, the NFL season keeps charging towards the playoffs. The NFC playoff race is full of some very interesting scenarios that have kept fans in several cities on the edge of their seats for weeks. Some NFC teams will get their playoff hopes dashed in week 14, while others will move one step closer to reaching their post-season goals.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
This week 14 matchup will complete the fall of the Giants and the rise of the Cowboys all in one week. This is the game where the Cowboys wrestle first place in the NFC East away from the Giants for good and crush the Giants’ playoff hopes.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
The San Francisco 49ers are a playoff contender while the Arizona Cardinals are not. But the pay head sports odds makers are still watching the race in the NFC for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The 49ers have made significant improvements over last year’s team that finished 6-10. The 49ers will need this win to try and keep pace with the Packers in the NFC standings.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are trying to sneak into the playoffs for the second year in a row. Last year, the Seahawks finished 7-9 and made the playoffs as the worst divisional champion ever. The NFL scores that the Seahawks have been posting lately are starting to push the team into playoff contention. If the Seahawks can keep winning and the New York Giants keep losing, then the Seahawks could be in the post-season again.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
NFL Week 12 Preview: New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles
on Nov.18, 2011, under NFL News
Online Sportsbook Overview
The Patriots’ offense is on a roll that the Eagles could only dream of. Even without a key downfield receiver, the Patriots continue to score points. But that could be where the Eagles’ defense comes in. The Philadelphia defensive secondary is capable of taking away the short passes that Tom Brady loves so much and forcing the Patriots to throw the ball down field. That will bring Chad Ochocinco into the game more, and he has not played much this year at all.
New England Patriots
The price per head sports fans in New England know that the Patriots are all offense and no defense. The only defensive strategy the Patriots have is to keep the other team’s offense off of the field by holding on to the ball. But that may not work in this game and it could expose serious weaknesses in the Patriots’ game plan.
Philadelphia Eagles
The good news for NFL fans in Philadelphia is that the Patriots do not have a pass rush capable of putting Michael Vick back in the hospital. The Eagles have a shot at winning this game if it can get the ball past the New England linebackers. That is where Desean Jackson and the Eagles’ wide receivers come into play.
The Bottom Line
These teams are very similar, but the big difference is that the Eagles’ secondary can shut down the Patriots’ passing game. This may not be a pretty game to watch, but the Eagles’ fans will enjoy the outcome.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl Odds Update
on Oct.21, 2011, under Super Bowl 101
Week seven of the 2011 NFL season allows bettors who have yet to make a futures selection on the Super Bowl 46 winner, a better idea of who is for real or who is pretending to compete for the title. With roughly eight weeks left in the 2011 Breeders Cup betting, there are plenty of teams that we did not expect to still be in the mix, that find themselves in the mix. Here is a look at the latest Super Bowl updates using a fine mix of bookie software agents.
Detroit Lions (12 to one) – Before the season started, the Detroit Lions were one of a handful of teams that nobody in their right mind would have considered a plausible Super Bowl threat in any year, especially coming out of a lockout. However, as Matthew Stafford and Megatron and their peers have shown, the Detroit Lions are for real, and they could be a contender for years to come. Entering week seven of the NFL season, the Lions are an impressive five and one. To put that into perspective, consider that from 2000 to 2009 the Lions were lucky if they could string three wins together for the entire season. Now with only eight weeks left, the Lions have an opportunity to show fans and critics alike, that they are for real and that unlike the Detroit Tigers, they can get the job done in the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills (25 to one) – Add the Buffalo Bills into the same category as Detroit for teams nobody in their right mind believed would ever make it to the Super Bowl in the next decade. The Bills have been men on a mission this season, as former Cincinnati Bengals whipping boy Ryan Fitzpatrick has looked like a younger version of Peyton Manning as he’s guided the Bills to an impressive record.
NFL Draft Predictions
on Feb.15, 2011, under NFL News
Now that Super Bowl XLV is a week old, sports betting online enthusiasts can shift their attention to the upcoming draft in the end of April. This year’s draft class looks to be one of the best in most NFL betting online handicapper’s minds. Who will go first? Will quarterbacks be the talk of the draft like the last three years? Here are some predictions regarding the draft.
The 2011 NFL draft will be defensive heavy for the first couple of rounds. On paper, it appears that the three teams that won the honor of drafting in the first three spots will all be defensive heavy. Carolina Panthers finished in dead last this past season and unless they trade the first overall pick, appear destined to pick a defensive minded player, although that could change as there are some great offensive threats.
In our opinion, we feel that since Carolina’s defensive line ranked amongst the worst last season, we predict they will focus on grabbing a defensive tackle or a defensive end. While cornerback Patrick Peterson of LSU appears to be the consensus pick amongst our colleagues, as the top draft choice, we feel Da’Quan Bowers a defensive end from Clemson will move up in the draft. Bowers is projected by our colleagues to be a four, five or six pick, but the big defensive end has all the tools to be a number one. What’s more, Bowers is comparable to former Carolina Panther great Julius Peppers, and really if the Panthers have a chance to get another Peppers, you can guarantee they will do so.
What’s more, look for several veteran quarterbacks to be in play come draft time. With rumours coming out, that Carson Palmer of the Bengals and Donovan McNabb of the Redskins want to be traded, both of their clubs could move the disgruntled pivots for higher draft choices. Donovan McNabb in Buffalo could be the pivot the Bills have been waiting for since Doug Flutie left in 1998.
Super Bowl Recap
on Feb.11, 2011, under NFL News
Sunday February 6. 2011 will be a day remembered by all sports betting handicappers of the NFL, as that was the first time in the history of the league that the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers were able to battle over the Vince Lombardi Trophy. While the Packers walked away as an online betting legend, both teams emerged with elite status. Here is a recap of the game.
The 2010-11 NFL seasons, Championship Game was played at the new Cowboy’s Stadium in Arlington, Texas, with over 100,000 spectators taking the game in person, while over 100 million spectators watched the game on television. Entering this year’s playoffs, the Green Bay Packers, were narrowly able to get in, with a 10 to three victory over the rival Chicago Bears. However, once getting into the playoffs, the Green Bay Packers under the guidance of quarterback Aaron Rodgers and defensive Captain Clay Matthews were able to elevate their game to a whole new level.
On the contrary, the Pittsburgh Steelers were able to get into the playoffs as one of two teams with a bye. However, in their first game against Baltimore they narrowly escaped with a come from behind win. Meanwhile in the Steelers second game of the playoffs the AFC Championship game against the New York Jets, the Steelers jumped out to a giant lead before almost losing the game in the final minute. Fans around the league speculated that this may be the year, that the Steelers failed to win the biggest prize of them all.
Entering the Super Bowl game, the Green Bay Packers had a ton of momentum on their side, and the Pittsburgh Steelers looked to be on their last legs. Before the game was half way old, the Steelers were down 21 to 10. By the time the game concluded, it was evident, that the Packers momentum was far too much for the Steelers to handle.
Super Bowl Recap
on Feb.08, 2011, under NFL News
Super Bowl 45 betting lines have come and gone as handicappers reflect on the 2010-11 NFL seasons. What year this past Super Bowl betting season was, as fans witnessed many ups and downs, highlighted by one of the highest scoring Championship games in recent memory. Here is a look back at Super Bowl 45.
The 2010-11 NFL Season came to an end on Sunday February 6, 2011 as the league’s two biggest fan bases met for the biggest prize. In one corner, was the modern day dynasty of the Pittsburgh Steelers, who appeared destined for a third Super Bowl ring in six years. On the other side of things, was the Green Bay Packers, who for the last few years has been attempting to create a new identity, without Brett Favre, and overcome a ton of adversity due to injuries in the regular season. When all was said and done, the adversity riddled Packers triumphed over the dynastic Steelers, in a game that acted as a coming out party for several players.
Going into the epic matchup, football analysts and fans from around the league all agreed that four men would be front and center. The game would feature, Aaron Rodgers, and Clay Matthews on one side and Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu on the other. Throughout the game, Rodgers, Matthews and Roethlisberger all left their marks, but Polamalu was near invisible. For Green Bay, Rodgers and Matthews weren’t the only ones center stage, as Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson were also important. The latter of which at different times in the game could have been considered as the goat if the Packers failed to win the Super Bowl.
This game also featured, karma getting back at Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Despite winning two of the last six Super Bowl Championships, Roethlisberger has been quite reckless in his personal life, and gone unpunished. With two interceptions and a Super Bowl loss, it appears that karma got the best of the man they call Big Ben.
Super Bowl Team Breakdown
on Feb.02, 2011, under NFL News
In a matter of days the Super Bowl 45 betting lines have been some of the closest in recent memory, as the spread between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers is only two and a half points. Two of the most storied franchises in NFL betting history, the 2010-11 edition of the Packers and Steelers are almost carbon copies of each other. Here are two factors that will be on full display come game time Sunday.
- Defense – The old adage of defense wins championships has never been truer in 2010-11. Dom Capers and Dick LeBeau the defensive coordinators of the Steelers and Packers are essentially identical to one another. Capers came up with the run defense that Pittsburgh has employed since 2003. As a result, in the last five years the Steelers have won two of the five potential Super Bowl trophies. What’s more, the 2010-11 Steelers emerged as one of the top five best defensive units since the NFL merger in 1970.
Conversely, the Green Bay Packers under Dick LeBeau, have adopted the Steelers model of defense, and have gone from being lit up by teams, to containing them to 16 points a game. Linebacker Clay Matthews has shown in the last year and a half that the days of Brian Urlacher and the Chicago Bears receiving all the praise in the NFC North, are over as Green Bay is the standard setter now.
- Experience vs. Inexperience – In sports we as fans look at all the statistics and at the end of the day the only statistic that really matters is the win and loss column. For the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Super Bowl is familiar territory, as since 2005, no team has been more dominant in the NFL.
On the contrary, the Green Bay Packers have finally built a winning team, and for the first time in 15 years they will be entertaining the possibility of winning the Super Bowl. Green Bay has yet to face adversity in these playoffs, while the Steelers narrowly defeated the Baltimore Ravens. When looking at these two teams, the safe bet is Pittsburgh because of their recent dominance.
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